China's Sugar Market: Rising Demand to Drive Slight Growth in Volume and Value

The sugar market in China is projected to experience a slight increase in performance, with a forecasted CAGR of +0.3% in volume and +1.9% in value from 2024 to 2035. This growth is attributed to the rising demand for sugar in the country, leading to an anticipated market volume of 15M tons and a value of $13.1B by the end of 2035. Market Forecast Driven by rising demand for sugar in China, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next decade. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.3% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 15M tons by the end of 2035. In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.9% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $13.1B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

China's Consumption of Sugar In 2024, consumption of sugar was finally on the rise to reach 15M tons for the first time since 2021, thus ending a two-year declining trend. In general, consumption, however, showed a perceptible slump. Sugar consumption peaked at 19M tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure. The revenue of the sugar market in China rose remarkably to $10.7B in 2024, growing by 9.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption, however, recorded a perceptible shrinkage. Sugar consumption peaked at $15.4B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure. Please mention the Source: https://www.indexbox.io/blog/sugar-china-market-overview-2024

Production

 China's Production of Sugar Sugar production in China declined modestly to 11M tons in 2024, approximately equating the previous year's figure. Overall, production showed a noticeable decline. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when the production volume increased by 12%. Over the period under review, production attained the peak volume at 15M tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure. Sugar output in China indicated a noticeable contraction, which was largely conditioned by a perceptible curtailment of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures. In value terms, sugar production reached $7.8B in 2024 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production recorded a perceptible setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the production volume increased by 14%. Over the period under review, production attained the peak level at $12.3B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure. Imports China's Imports of Sugar In 2024, overseas purchases of sugar increased by 9.6% to 4.4M tons for the first time since 2021, thus ending a two-year declining trend. Over the period under review, imports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when imports increased by 55%. Imports peaked at 5.7M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure. In value terms, sugar imports rose to $2.4B in 2024. In general, imports enjoyed a slight increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when imports increased by 61%. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at $2.6B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum. Imports By Country In 2024, Brazil (4M tons) was the main supplier of sugar to China, accounting for a 93% share of total imports. Moreover, sugar imports from Brazil exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, South Korea (165K tons), more than tenfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by El Salvador (131K tons), with a 3% share. From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume from Brazil totaled +1.9%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: South Korea (-2.8% per year) and El Salvador (+3.3% per year). In value terms, Brazil ($2.3B) constituted the largest supplier of sugar to China, comprising 95% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by South Korea ($117M), with a 4.9% share of total imports. It was followed by El Salvador, with a 3.2% share. From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value from Brazil totaled +4.2%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: South Korea (-1.4% per year) and El Salvador (+8.8% per year). Import Prices By Country The average sugar import price stood at $550 per ton in 2024, reducing by -5.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated a slight increase from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. 

Based on 2024 figures, sugar import price increased by +66.3% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 when the average import price increased by 96% against the previous year. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $716 per ton. From 2017 to 2024, the average import prices failed to regain momentum. Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major supplying countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the highest price was recorded for prices from Guatemala ($733 per ton) and Thailand ($731 per ton), while the price for Brazil ($561 per ton) and El Salvador ($578 per ton) were amongst the lowest. From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Nicaragua (+5.6%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth. Exports China's Exports of Sugar After two years of growth, overseas shipments of sugar decreased by -30.4% to 143K tons in 2024. Overall, exports, however, showed a prominent expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when exports increased by 104%. The exports peaked at 205K tons in 2023, and then shrank markedly in the following year. In value terms, sugar exports shrank rapidly to $109M in 2024. Over the period under review, exports, however, saw a strong increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 when exports increased by 79% against the previous year. The exports peaked at $143M in 2023, and then shrank sharply in the following year. Exports By Country Hong Kong SAR (32K tons), Mongolia (27K tons) and Democratic People's Republic of Korea (26K tons) were the main destinations of sugar exports from China, with a combined 60% share of total exports. Thailand, the Philippines, the United States, Japan and Malaysia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 30%. From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main countries of destination, was attained by the Philippines (with a CAGR of +136.0%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth. In value terms, the largest markets for sugar exported from China were Hong Kong SAR ($23M), Mongolia ($21M) and Democratic People's Republic of Korea ($20M), together accounting for 58% of total exports. 

Thailand, the Philippines, the United States, Malaysia and Japan lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 32%. The Philippines, with a CAGR of +124.2%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main countries of destination over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth. Export Prices By Country The average sugar export price stood at $767 per ton in 2024, picking up by 9.9% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, showed a slight shrinkage. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average export price increased by 15% against the previous year. The export price peaked at $875 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, the export prices failed to regain momentum. There were significant differences in the average prices for the major overseas markets. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Malaysia ($1,356 per ton), while the average price for exports to Thailand ($620 per ton) was amongst the lowest. From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Mongolia (+4.2%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth. 

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