Tanzania’s Threats to South Africa’s Agricultural Exports Possibly Misguided

A surprising development in East and Southern African trade relations emerged in mid-April when Tanzania’s Minister of Agriculture, Hussein Bashe, suggested that Tanzania could restrict agricultural imports from South Africa. The move caught many observers off guard, especially given the historically cooperative trade relationship between the two nations. 

During a press briefing in Dar es Salaam, Minister Bashe linked the proposal to protect Tanzania's farmers and uphold regional trade fairness. However, industry experts caution that these measures may be misguided and potentially harmful to Tanzania’s own trade interests. 

Bashe’s remarks were made in parallel to similar tensions with Malawi, where Tanzanian maize had been banned over fears of Maize Lethal Necrosis (MLN) since late 2023. More recently, Malawi imposed restrictions on Tanzanian flour and rice. Notably, South Africa’s restrictions apply only to Tanzanian bananas, raising questions about the proportionality and intent behind the proposed Tanzanian response. 

A Critical Trade Relationship 

South Africa has long been one of Tanzania’s top trading partners. In 2023, South Africa was the second-largest importer of Tanzanian goods after India, purchasing about $1.1 billion worth of Tanzanian exports, representing 15% of Tanzania’s total global exports. Conversely, Tanzanian exports to South Africa amounted to just $74.3 million, a fraction of South Africa’s $13.2 billion agricultural exports globally. 

Moreover, in 2023, 95% of Tanzania’s macadamia nut exports, and large shares of its coffee husks, tobacco refuse, and fruit seeds, went to South Africa. Tanzania is also South Africa’s key supplier of avocados during the offseason, particularly from October to January, when local production wanes. 

Despite Tanzania’s growing agricultural sector, the disparity in size and volume between the two nations remains stark. For comparison, in 2024, just three South African agricultural products — maize, fresh grapes, and oranges — generated $2.4 billion, dwarfing Tanzania’s entire agricultural export revenue. 

Trade Must Be Evidence-Based 

Experts argue that invoking trade protectionism, as Minister Bashe suggested, should be backed by credible evidence of risk, such as disease outbreaks or food safety concerns — conditions recognized under World Trade Organization (WTO) protocols. For instance, South Africa has faced challenges with Goss's Wilt in maize and Panama Disease in bananas, both serious threats to domestic agriculture and food security. 

These challenges underscore why countries sometimes impose temporary trade measures. However, they also illustrate the need for scientific justification — not retaliatory policy. 

Learning from Global Examples 

The unfolding situation has sparked broader concerns about Africa’s readiness to implement meaningful regional integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Trade experts emphasize the importance of learning from global trade disputes, such as the ongoing tensions between the U.S. and China, to avoid politicizing food trade and undermining economic development. 

South Africa’s own history underscores the importance of meeting stringent trade regulations. For example, it took 16 years for South Africa to gain access to Thailand’s apple market, and its meat industry has waited over 20 years to satisfy Saudi Arabian import requirements. 

Intra-African trade is critical to economic resilience and food security, particularly as the continent seeks to build unified markets and leverage its agricultural potential. While protecting local farmers is vital, policy decisions must be balanced, evidence-based, and forward-looking — not reactive. As diplomatic discussions continue, stakeholders across Africa hope for de-escalation and a renewed focus on collaborative trade solutions, rather than escalating restrictions that risk undermining regional trust and economic stability.

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